The short answer
Not mechanically. After about 1,000 large release moves on six FX pairs, following the first five-minute move did better than fading it and slightly better than random, but it still lost -0.08R to -0.19R a trade once the wider news spread was counted. Fading lost more (-0.26R). On gold, silver and oil both directions lost. Most of the move happens within the first five minutes, before a retail order can act on it.
What we tested
- Markets
- EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF; XAUUSD, XAGUSD, US oil
- Period
- Year 1 to find, year 2 to judge (one-minute data)
- Release minutes 08:30, 10:00 and 14:00 New York. A release counts as a shock when the five-minute move is at least 3 times its usual size for that minute.
- Follow at +5 minutes (2R target, flat after 4 hours), follow at +15 minutes if still beyond the start, fade at +5 minutes, or simply hold for 60 or 240 minutes. Spread at 3 times its normal level for the hour.
Results
| Rule | FX (6 pairs) | Gold, silver, oil |
|---|---|---|
| Follow the move at +5 min, 2R | -0.12R | -0.23R |
| Follow at +15 min if still beyond | -0.19R | -0.23R |
| Fade the move | -0.26R | -0.32R |
| Follow, hold 60 min | -0.08R | -0.22R |
| Follow, hold 4 hours | -0.17R | -0.27R |
| Random side (control) | -0.18R | -0.18R |
What it means
- The 60-minute follow beat the random control on FX (p 0.05) but was negative on 5 of 6 pairs: the drift after a release is real but smaller than the cost of trading it.
- Prices absorb the data surprise within minutes, and the first move goes to the fastest traders.
Limits of this test
- News spreads were modelled at three times normal; real slippage in the first seconds can be worse.
- No calendar of actual-versus-forecast figures was used; the price move itself identified the surprise.
Frequently asked questions
Is news trading profitable for retail traders?
Following the first five-minute move after major US releases lost 0.08R to 0.19R per trade in our FX test once the wider news spread was counted, and fading it lost more.
How every test on these pages works
- Prices: the broker's own bars from an FTMO cTrader account. Fills are simulated minute by minute on one-minute bars; when one minute touches both the stop and the target, the stop is assumed to fill first.
- Costs: the broker's bid/ask spread measured by hour of day, commission per market, and the broker's own overnight swap rates for anything held past the daily rollover.
- Periods: year 1 = 24 Oct 2024 to 23 Oct 2025, year 2 = 24 Oct 2025 to 24 Oct 2026. Daily rules also use Dec 2020 to Oct 2024 ("2021-24"). Rules are written down before testing and are not tuned on the period that judges them.
- Controls: every rule is compared with entries that have no reason behind them (random sides, random days, or the same rule at fake levels), so a result has to beat chance, not just be positive.
- R is the trade's risk (entry to stop). An average of +0.10R means the average trade made a tenth of what it risked; -0.10R means it lost a tenth.
The full results for the rules RezSync Algo trades, by market and risk profile with every trade downloadable, are in the backtest report.
Published research
Related research
Research, not financial advice. These are simulated results on historical prices: they involve no real money, are produced with hindsight of the rules, and past results do not predict future ones. Costs and fills are modelled, and your broker's prices and costs will differ. Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of losing money; test on a demo account first.