The short answer
Not in our test. On gold, US100 and US500 over two years (1,461 trades), the Silver Bullet averaged -0.011R and -0.016R a trade after costs, about the same as random entries at the same moments (-0.026R and -0.002R). Only one of the three markets was positive in either year.
What we tested
- Markets
- XAUUSD (gold), US100, US500
- Period
- Year 1 and year 2 (one-minute data)
- Between 10:00 and 11:00 New York, the first M5 fair value gap (a bullish gap: bar 3's low above bar 1's high; bearish the mirror) whose third bar closes inside the window.
- Enter in the gap's direction at the next minute, stop beyond bar 1, target 2R, flat at 12:00 New York.
Results
| Period | Trades | Average R | Win rate | Random sides | Markets positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 728 | -0.011R | 43% | -0.026R | 1 of 3 |
| Year 2 | 733 | -0.016R | 43% | -0.002R | 1 of 3 |
What it means
- The win rate (43%) is what a 2R target with a random direction gives after costs: the fair value gap did not pick the direction better than chance.
- There is no independent large-sample study of ICT concepts; the best published one is a one-year blog backtest. This is a two-year, costed test with a control.
Limits of this test
- One standard reading of the rules, untuned; ICT teaches variations (other windows, liquidity targets) that we did not test separately.
Frequently asked questions
Is the ICT Silver Bullet profitable?
In our two-year test on gold, US100 and US500 with real costs, no: it lost about 0.01R to 0.02R per trade, the same as random entries in the same hour.
How every test on these pages works
- Prices: the broker's own bars from an FTMO cTrader account. Fills are simulated minute by minute on one-minute bars; when one minute touches both the stop and the target, the stop is assumed to fill first.
- Costs: the broker's bid/ask spread measured by hour of day, commission per market, and the broker's own overnight swap rates for anything held past the daily rollover.
- Periods: year 1 = 24 Oct 2024 to 23 Oct 2025, year 2 = 24 Oct 2025 to 24 Oct 2026. Daily rules also use Dec 2020 to Oct 2024 ("2021-24"). Rules are written down before testing and are not tuned on the period that judges them.
- Controls: every rule is compared with entries that have no reason behind them (random sides, random days, or the same rule at fake levels), so a result has to beat chance, not just be positive.
- R is the trade's risk (entry to stop). An average of +0.10R means the average trade made a tenth of what it risked; -0.10R means it lost a tenth.
The full results for the rules RezSync Algo trades, by market and risk profile with every trade downloadable, are in the backtest report.
Related research
Research, not financial advice. These are simulated results on historical prices: they involve no real money, are produced with hindsight of the rules, and past results do not predict future ones. Costs and fills are modelled, and your broker's prices and costs will differ. Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of losing money; test on a demo account first.