Endline Evaluation-ReDSS Kenya Evidence Platform- Consultancy

ReDSS is a secretariat working on behalf of 14 international and national NGOs responding to forced displacement in East Africa, the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region. ReDSS was established in 2015 in response to a desire by the NGO community to be more proactive in shaping durable solutions policy and programming in the region. Our team works both at regional and country level and focusses on the translation of evidence and research into policies and programmes that can better deliver for displacement-affected communities. This is achieved through a range of activities, including convening key stakeholders at multiple levels to build consensus around collective actions; supporting new evidence generation through commissioning and undertaking research and analysis; and building the capacity of key actors through delivering training and developing tools and guidance among others.

Project Background

The Kenya Evidence Platform (KEP) was established in response to a persistent gap within the displacement sector: the limited visibility and uptake of refugee-led and locally grounded research within refugee policy and programming processes in Kenya. Funded by the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the three-year initiative (2023–2026) operates at the intersection of research, policy, and practice, with a focus on strengthening locally driven evidence generation and use.

Implemented by a consortium comprising the Regional Durable Solutions Secretariat (ReDSS), the Refugee-Led Research Hub (RLRH), and Maseno University, KEP was launched during a significant period of policy transition in Kenya, including the implementation of the Refugees Act (2021) and the development and launch of the Shirika Plan. Within this context, the platform seeks to strengthen the role of refugee and Kenyan researchers in shaping evidence-informed approaches to refugee management and durable solutions.

KEP has supported a range of initiatives aimed at strengthening the refugee research ecosystem in Kenya. These include:

Supporting refugee and Kenyan scholars to produce independent research papers and evidence products;

Establishing and supporting the Forced Migration Research Network in Kenya (FOMREK) to strengthen coordination, mentorship, and collaboration among researchers;

Conducting research trainings, coaching, and mentorship for emerging refugee and local researchers;

Convening policy dialogues and engagement forums involving government, academia, humanitarian and development actors; and

Producing and disseminating evidence products intended to inform refugee policy and programming in Kenya.

The platform primarily targets researchers with lived experience of displacement, Kenyan scholars, academia, policymakers, and actors involved in refugee policy and programming, particularly in Nairobi, Kakuma, and Dadaab.

Through these interventions, KEP aims to contribute to improved coordination around refugee research, increased availability and visibility of refugee-led evidence, stronger research capacity among emerging scholars, and more direct engagement between evidence producers and decisionmakers within Kenya’s refugee management ecosystem.

Purpose of the consultancy

The primary purpose of this consultancy is to conduct a rigorous, utilization-focused endline evaluation. Given the absence of a formal baseline at project inception and the operational unfeasibility of non-treatment comparison groups, the evaluation utilizes a Theory-Based framework that fulfills three distinct evaluative functions:

Strategic Accountability: Verifying performance beyond output counts by evaluating the technical quality and policy relevance of research products (via standardized qualitative rubrics), tracing the depth of institutional evidence uptake in key policy frameworks (example: Shirika Plan, Differentiated Assistance Framework, County Integrated Development Plans, etc.), and independently substantiating behavioural outcomes among target decision-makers.

Baseline Reconstruction & Capacity Trajectory Mapping: Reconstructing historical capacity starting points, specifically for supported researchers using single-sitting Retrospective Pre-Test (RPT) self-assessments, anchored and validated through objective rubric-based scoring of pre- vs. post-project research artifacts (e.g., initial concept notes vs. Published working papers/briefs) across distinct exposure tiers.

Learning & Systems Tracing: Identifying the qualitative mechanisms, institutional pathways, and contextual drivers (e.g., political incentives, funding shifts, regional coordination structures) that facilitated or hindered the uptake of refugee-led and locally grounded research within Kenya's forced displacement architecture.

Objective of the consultancy

The specific objectives of the endline evaluation are:

Assess Research Quality & Production (Outcome 1): Determine the extent to which the platform increased the production of high-quality, locally authored research products, evaluating their academic and technical rigor using standardized qualitative rubrics.

Evaluate Policy and Programmatic Influence (Outcome 3): Trace the utilization of KEP evidence products (policy briefs, research papers, Evidence Mapping Reports) within government bodies, humanitarian agencies, and NGO coordination mechanisms, assessing their specific influence on policy, practice outcomes and programme design.

Reconstruct Tiered Capacity Trajectories (Outcome 2): Measure changes in technical research skills, policy engagement capacity, and professional networking among supported researchers, disaggregated by category/tier of support (e.g., Independent Research Projects vs. Writing Workshops vs. Training Cohorts), using retrospective self-assessments triangulated against objective artifact quality scores.

Analyze Systemic Localization (Cross-cutting): Evaluate the project's contribution to increased visibility, credibility, institutional leadership (e.g., FOMREK), and structural inclusion of refugee-led and locally grounded researchers within Kenya's displacement architecture.

Provide Strategic Recommendations (Learning): Offer actionable, user-specific insights for the Kingdom of the Netherlands (DGIS), ReDSS, consortium partners, and local government actors on sustaining platform gains beyond the current funding cycle.

Methodology & Scope of Work

NOTE: The Methodology shared here is not prescriptive, the applicants are encouraged to propose a different approach, integrate with other approaches that deliver the results the consultancy is looking for or adapt it altogether. If adapted, the consultants will be at liberty to refine it during the inception phase.

Additional Note: The Project's Theory of Change already exists with highlighted Assumptions. The Total Project Participants after removal of duplicities are 789 (Nairobi, Kakuma, Dadaab (20%)). Total Project Evidence Products: 12

This evaluation will utilize an Integrated Theory-Based Evaluation (TBE) Framework. Bidders are explicitly instructed not to propose quasi-experimental designs or non-treatment comparison groups, as these are unviable given the population parameters. Bidders must demonstrate methodological mastery in the following four core pillars:

Core Methodological Pillars

Contribution Analysis (CA) with Process Tracing:

The evaluation will use Mayne’s Contribution Analysis to test the project's vertical Theory of Change (ToC) logic and claims

During the Inception Phase, the consultant will explicitly reconstruct and disaggregate implicit ToC assumptions (these are generated from an already existing ToC) into testable capacity, behavioural, and contextual hypotheses.

For major policy and practice outcome claims, the consultant will apply qualitative Process Tracing tests to evaluate KEP’s contribution against rival hypotheses (e.g., independent Shirika Plan political momentum, World Bank/UNHCR funding shifts, or broader economic trends).

Inductive Outcome Harvesting (OH) with Independent Substantiation:

OH, will identify intended and unintended changes in the behaviour, relationships, policies, or practices of external social actors (government officials, UN agencies, RLOs, INGOs).

Strict Methodological & Safeguarding Requirement: Site-based Outcome Harvesting workshops in Nairobi, Kakuma, and Dadaab are strictly for outcome formulation and discovery. All outcome substantiation must be conducted independently via 1-on-1 external Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) or documentary verification.

Tiered Within-Subject Capacity Mapping & Rubric Artifact Scoring: To account for varying intervention intensity, the consultant must partition the beneficiary population into explicit Exposure Tiers rather than aggregating them into a single average:

Tier 1 (High Intensity - IRP Grantees & Mentees): Evaluated via qualitative 1-on-1 narrative KIIs, retrospective skill recall grids, and objective rubric-based scoring of baseline vs. endline research artifacts (comparing early proposals against final published papers/briefs using a 4-point qualitative quality rubric).

Tier 2 (Medium Intensity - Writing Workshop Alumni): Evaluated via retrospective self-assessment grids cross-checked against independent publication/submission verification.

Tier 3 (Low Intensity - Training Cohort Alumni & Event Attendees): Evaluated via lightweight tracer surveys focusing strictly on skill application, evidence reach, and immediate utility.

Phased Scope of Work

The Note on the Methodology applies here as well.

Phase 1: Inception Phase (Days 1–10): Inception Report, Reconstructing Theory of Change assumptions for CA; drafting quality rubrics for artifact scoring; designing modular, stakeholder-specific KII guides; and the Outcome Register template.

Phase 2: Fieldwork & Independent Substantiation (Days 11–40): Administering tiered quantitative/qualitative surveys to treated participants; conducting site-based OH workshops; conducting independent 1-on-1 substantiation KIIs with stakeholders

Phase 3: Synthesis, Validation & Reporting (Days 40-60): Triangulating qualitative narratives, rubric scores, and citation depth metrics; conducting participatory member-checking validation sessions with refugee researchers; drafting the final report; and producing the Policy & Programme Influence Map.

Deliverables

The Consultant will be requested to submit the following deliverables:

Phase

Expected deliverables

Indicative description tasks

Maximum expected timeframe

Inception

Inception Report & Tools

Detailed Workplan ; Reconstructed Theory of Change Assumptions/Hypotheses for CA ; Tiered Survey & Modular KII Guides ; Rubric-Based Artifact Scoring Template ; Manual Document Audit Protocol ; and Preliminary Outcome Register

10 days

Data Collection/Fieldwork

Raw Data & Interim Update

Completion of modular KIIs, site-based OH formulation workshops, independent 1-on-1 substantiation KIIs, treated-population survey; raw anonymized datasets, transcripts, and updated Outcome Register.

15 days

Analysis and Reporting

Draft Evaluation Report

Comprehensive analysis of contribution claims, tiered capacity trajectories, process tracing tests, and policy influence maps.

15 days

Final

Final Report Deliverable Package

Integrated Final Evaluation Report; cleaned anonymized datasets & codebooks; completed Outcome Register; standalone Policy & Programme Influence Map; and a 3-page plain-language Learning Brief.

20 days

Duration, timeline, and payment

The Endline Evaluation will be conducted over a period of 60 days.

Payment tranches are strictly tied to formal technical approval of deliverables by the ReDSS MEAL Unit :

Tranche 1 (15%): Upon formal clearance of the Inception Report & Tools (Deliverable 1).

Tranche 2 (25%): Upon submission and technical review of Raw Data, Field Report, and Clean Datasets (Deliverable 2).

Tranche 3 (60%) : Upon final clearance and sign-off of the Integrated Final Report, Policy Influence Map, and 3-page Learning Brief (Deliverable 4).

Proposed Composition of Team

ReDSS accepts applications from qualified firms, registered consortiums, or partnerships. The bidding entity must demonstrate expertise in Theory-Based Evaluations (TBE), Process Tracing, Outcome Harvesting, and qualitative research in displacement contexts across Kenya. The team must fulfill the following key roles:

Lead Evaluator / MEAL Specialist : Advanced degree (Master’s or PhD) in Evaluation, Development Studies, Economics, or Social Sciences. Minimum 10 years of experience leading complex evaluations in humanitarian/development sectors. Documented expertise in Contribution Analysis, Process Tracing, and reconstructing capacity baselines without non-treatment comparison groups.

Qualitative & Policy Specialist : Advanced degree in Public Policy, Political Science, or International Relations. Documented expertise in Outcome Harvesting, Process Tracing, and conducting high-level KIIs with senior government officials (e.g., DRS, Shirika Plan Secretariat, County Executives in Garissa/Turkana) and bilateral donors.

Research Uptake & Document Audit Specialist : Expertise in policy analysis, bibliometrics, and grey literature auditing within international development. Proven ability to map policy influence pathways and produce clear visual data products (Policy & Programme Influence Maps).

Research Associates (Refugee & Community Researchers) : Minimum 3 years of experience in social research. Bidders must meaningfully include researchers with lived experience of displacement (drawn from Kakuma, Dadaab, or Nairobi) as core evaluators and co-facilitators. Must demonstrate prior training in research ethics, safeguarding, and Do No Harm principles.

Eligibility, qualification, and experience required

The desired qualifications for the firm/consortiums, partnerships of individuals are:

Advanced degrees in Statistics, Monitoring and Evaluation, Development Studies, Economics, Social Sciences, or related fields; with extensive experience in research and data management.

Should have at least 5 years’ experience in conducting end-line surveys/evaluations, with a proven track record related to assessment of Research-based or evidence generation projects.

At least 5 years of proven Experience conducting baseline Evaluations for projects with no registered baseline data.

At least 5 years of proven experience with Theory-Based Evaluations, Outcome harvesting and contribution analysis.

A deep thematic understanding of the Displacement Contexts in Kenya, Refugees Act (2021) and the Shirika Plan.

Proven ability to deliver high-quality, "utilization-focused" reports within strict timelines.

The evaluation team should demonstrate meaningful inclusion of researchers with lived experience of displacement, either as research associates, advisors, or core team members.

Experience with evaluations commissioned by bilateral donors, including Kingdom of the Netherlands (DGIS) -funded programmes, is an added advantage.

Excellent data analysis, presentation, and visualization skills.

If a firm, should be registered under the Laws of Kenya.

Technical supervision

The selected consultant will work under the supervision of:

ReDSS Kenya Manager.

ReDSS Kenya Learning Specialist.

Location and support

Submissions for this consultancy are open to bids for firms with team members based in Kenya. Ideally the (lead) consultant and the team members will be based in Kenya.

The Consultant(s) will provide her/his/their own computer and mobile telephone.

What ReDSS will provide access to:

Evidence and knowledge products that have been produced by the Kenya evidence Platform (KEP) in the past 3 years and the affiliated Forced Migration and Research Network in Kenya (FOMREK).

Participants database for KEP activities over the years by all the 3 partners.

Indicators Performance tracking Table and the Log Frame and Theory of Change (TOC).

Annual Reports submitted to the donor for Year 1 and 2 and any activity-specific reports needed.

Policy Makers, Academics and other Stakeholders Mapped by the consultants; ReDSS will support access to these actors.

Travel

The Consultant will be expected to arrange for his/her own transportation, meals, and accommodation in the field areas (Nairobi, Kakuma, Dadaab) for data collection should the presented methodology demand so. The consultant is also expected to make adequate provisions for this in the Financial Proposal.

TERMS & CONDITIONS

DRC will evaluate proposals and award the assignment based on technical and financial feasibility in line with DRC Procurement guidelines. DRC reserves the right to accept or reject any proposal received without disclosing reasons to applicants and is not bound to accept the lowest bidder.

CONFIDENTIALITY & INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

All information presented, obtained, and produced is to be treated as DRC’s property and is considered confidential for all other purposes than what is outlined in these terms of reference.

All materials, transcripts, reports, and digital assets developed under this consultancy will remain the sole property of DRC/ReDSS. The firm will hand over all editable files, documentation, data sets and report Upon completion.

How to apply

Interested firms that meet the requirements should request bidding documents fromprocurement.ken3@drc.ngo email and send both their proposal and other required documents as stipulated in the RFP Invitation Letter to the email address: tender.ken@drc.ngo

Please indicate “Endline Evaluation-ReDSS Kenya Evidence Platform” in the subject line of your email application. The deadline for submitting the proposal is 19th November 2026, 1700 hrs EAT.

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