TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR) Regional Climate, Environmental & Anticipatory Action Modelling Consultant

TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR)

Regional Climate, Environmental & Anticipatory Action Modelling Consultant

REF: PD-RLC-01288

Summary Table

Position Tittle

Regional Climate, Environmental and Anticipatory Action Modelling Consultant

Donor

Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations of the European Commission (DG ECHO)

Contract Type

Consultancy

Primary Program & Role

IMPAACT: Institutionalizing Interoperable Multi-Hazard Preparedness and Anticipatory Action

Contract Duration

10 months contract duration to be executed on a phased approach over the program period.

Program Period

1st December 2026 – 30th April 2028

Geographic Coverage

Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti with strong regional-level engagement

Duty Station

Regional /HEARO-Nairobi

Reports to

IMPAACT Consortium Coordinator

Technical Coordination

ACF regional and country technical teams; IMPAACT Data Analyst, IGAD/ICPAC; local partners and relevant national institutions

Background

Action Against Hunger leads the global movement to end hunger. We innovate solutions, advocate for change, and reach millions of people every year with proven hunger prevention and treatment programmes. As a non-profit organisation working across multiple countries, Action Against Hunger partners with communities to address the root causes of hunger, including climate change, conflict, inequity and emergencies. We strive to create a world free from hunger, for everyone, for good.

Action Against Hunger-USA (ACF-USA) is an independent international NGO and is part of the Action Against Hunger International Network, which provides humanitarian relief in over 50 countries worldwide in Nutrition, Health, WASH, FSL and MHPSS, Gender & Protection sectors. Action Against Hunger-USA currently manages operations in 8 countries: Kenya, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, Zambia and Haiti. It has over $100 million in programs, and approximately 2,000 staff based in various country offices and the three Head Quarters Locations namely New York City, Washington D.C, and Nairobi.

Summary of the consultancy

Action Against Hunger (ACF), in consortium with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), is implementing a DG ECHO-funded regional disaster preparedness program, Institutionalizing Interoperable Multi-Hazard Preparedness and Anticipatory Action (IMPAACT), across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti. The program aims to strengthen interoperable, government-owned, and community-responsive systems for multi-hazard disaster preparedness and anticipatory action by operationalizing the SCALAA methodology and IGAD Anticipatory Action Roadmap through four interdependent result areas. These include strengthening early warning and anticipatory action protocols, standard operating procedures (SOPs), cross-border triggers, preparedness and contingency planning, and Crisis Modifier arrangements.

Achieving these objectives requires specialized technical expertise in climate and environmental risk analysis, anticipatory action modelling, trigger development and validation, and the integration of early-warning information into operational decision-making. The Regional Climate, Environmental and Anticipatory Action Modelling Specialist/Consultant will therefore provide targeted, time-bound technical support, working closely with ACF, IGAD/ICPAC, and relevant country-level stakeholders and consortium partners to ensure that climate and environmental risk information is translated into scientifically robust, context-specific, and operationally actionable anticipatory action mechanisms. The consultancy will also support the consistent integration of environmental considerations and compliance with DG ECHO’s Minimum Environmental Requirements across relevant program interventions. In addition, this specialized expertise is essential to safeguarding the scientific rigor and validation of trigger thresholds, ensuring consistent application of environmental requirements, and enabling the program to contribute meaningfully to ICPAC’s regional early-warning products, the SCALAA trigger harmonization framework, and the broader evidence base on climate-informed anticipatory action. Without this support, the technical credibility and regional added value of the program could be significantly constrained, limiting its ability to strengthen interoperable, evidence-based, and risk-informed anticipatory action systems across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti.

Purpose: To provide specialized regional expertise in climate science, environmental risk analysis, and anticipatory action modelling to strengthen multi-hazard early warning, risk analysis, preparedness, and anticipatory action under the IMPAACT program, translating regional and national climate information into scientifically robust, practical, and timely operational decisions.

Engagement: the consultant is expected to engage directly with IGAD/ICPAC, national meteorological and hydrological services, FAO modelling teams, National DRM authorities including EDMRC, SODMA, NDRMC, CIGRC, ONARS and SSMD, IGAD AA TWG, IGAD Prepare, FEWS NET, IPC, SCALAA project team and humanitarian coordination platforms, ensuring climate intelligence is systematically embedded in operational preparedness and early warning systems.

Delivery: the consultant is expected to deliver technically sound, operationally relevant and context-sensitive climate and environmental outputs including calibrated trigger matrices, validated modelling products, risk assessments, capacity-strengthening tools, NEAT+ screenings and scientific briefs, that can support Early Action Protocols and Anticipatory Action Plans directly applied to protect vulnerable populations across the Horn of Africa, including the three IMPAACT targeted countries. A summary of the indicative, time-bound deliverables expected during the consultancy period is provided in Section 5.

Overall and Specific Objectives

Overall objective: Strengthen the operational use of climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information within IMPAACT preparedness and anticipatory action processes through an integrated, decision-support model product that builds on and adds value to existing IGAD/ICPAC forecasting and multi-hazard modelling capabilities, while strengthening regional-to-national linkages and translating risk information into actionable early-warning and anticipatory action decisions.

Specific Objectives:

Develop a complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product(s) that build on existing IGAD/ICPAC climate forecasting, environmental monitoring and multi-hazard modelling capabilities, adding value through enhanced risk interpretation, impact-oriented analysis and the translation of existing information into operational preparedness and anticipatory action decisions.

Strengthen the integration and application of existing regional climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information within IMPAACT preparedness, early-warning and anticipatory action processes, avoiding duplication of existing modelling initiatives and promoting coherence across regional and national systems.

Support the review, contextualization and refinement of hazard-specific indicators, risk thresholds and forecast-based triggers, ensuring their relevance to national and local risk contexts and their compatibility with existing IGAD/ICPAC multi-hazard frameworks and products.

Provide technical interpretation and value-added analysis of seasonal, sub-seasonal and other relevant climate and environmental information, including the assessment of forecast probabilities, uncertainty, potential impacts and implications for operational decision-making.

Strengthen the translation and interoperability of regional climate and multi-hazard information into national and country-level early-warning, disaster risk management, preparedness and anticipatory action systems, including through tailored decision-support products and operational guidance.

Support the application of existing regional multi-hazard modelling outputs to strengthen cross-border and transboundary preparedness and anticipatory action, with particular attention to compounding, cascading and interconnected climate and environmental risks.

Strengthen institutional and stakeholder capacities to interpret, contextualize and operationalize existing climate forecasts, multi-hazard risk information, environmental indicators, forecast probabilities and uncertainty in support of evidence-based preparedness and anticipatory action.

4. Scope of Work

Climate and Environmental Risk Analysis

Review and synthesize existing regional and national climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information, models and analytical products relevant to Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti, drawing on available IGAD/ICPAC and other relevant institutional capabilities and resources.

Map and assess existing regional and national climate and environmental datasets, forecasting products, early-warning systems, multi-hazard models and monitoring mechanisms to identify opportunities for integration, complementarity and operational application within IMPAACT.

Assess priority climate and environmental hazards, their seasonal and spatial characteristics, and potential compounding, cascading and transboundary impacts across the three countries.

Identify critical information, analytical and operational gaps in existing risk assessment and early-warning systems, particularly those affecting the translation of regional forecasts and multi-hazard information into national and sub-national preparedness and anticipatory action.

Support the contextualization and refinement of existing climate and environmental risk profiles, drawing on available assessments and models, rather than developing parallel products, to strengthen their relevance for operational decision-making and anticipatory action.

Early Warning, Thresholds and Triggers

Review and assess existing regional and national early-warning indicators, risk thresholds, forecast-based triggers and associated decision-making protocols for priority climate and environmental hazards, drawing on existing IGAD/ICPAC frameworks, multi-hazard models and national early-warning systems.

Support the identification, contextualization and refinement of relevant climate and environmental indicators, thresholds and forecast-based triggers for priority hazards, ensuring they are informed by existing regional forecasting capabilities, national risk profiles, historical impacts and local vulnerability contexts.

Strengthen the linkage between forecast information, hazard thresholds, anticipated impacts and pre-agreed preparedness and anticipatory actions, including consideration of appropriate forecast lead times, probability levels, decision windows and institutional responsibilities.

Support the technical assessment, validation and calibration of existing triggers using historical climate and hazard data, forecast performance, observed impacts and operational experience, with particular attention to forecast uncertainty, false alarms and missed events.

Promote consistency and interoperability between regional and national early-warning indicators, thresholds and trigger-setting approaches, ensuring that regional climate and multi-hazard information can effectively inform country-level decision-making without duplicating or undermining existing institutional mechanisms.

Support the documentation and operationalization of agreed indicators, thresholds and triggers through practical guidance, decision-support tools and standard operating procedures that facilitate timely, evidence-based and coordinated anticipatory action.

Integrate validated indicators, thresholds and anticipatory action triggers into the complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product, building on existing IGAD/ICPAC forecasting and multi-hazard modelling outputs to strengthen the translation of regional risk information into actionable national and sub-national early-warning and anticipatory action decisions.

Integration into EAPs, SOPs and Preparedness Planning

Provide technical inputs to the development, review and refinement of existing Early Action Protocols (EAPs), Anticipatory Action (AA) frameworks, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), contingency plans, preparedness plans and Crisis Modifier arrangements, ensuring that they adequately incorporate relevant climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information.

Support the integration and contextualization of regional climate forecasts, multi-hazard modelling outputs, environmental risk indicators and validated thresholds and triggers into existing country-level EAPs, SOPs and preparedness planning frameworks for Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti.

Strengthen the linkage between risk information, forecast-based thresholds and triggers, institutional decision-making processes and pre-agreed anticipatory actions, ensuring clarity on decision points, activation procedures, lead times, institutional responsibilities and implementation arrangements.

Support the alignment of regional early-warning and multi-hazard risk information with national and sub-national preparedness and anticipatory action mechanisms, promoting coherence between IGAD/ICPAC technical products and country-level operational frameworks.

Provide technical guidance on integrating evolving climate and environmental risk information, including compounding and cascading hazards, into contingency planning, scenario development, preparedness reviews and Crisis Modifier activation arrangements.

Support the development and refinement of practical decision-support tools, trigger-to-action matrices and operational guidance to facilitate the consistent translation of early-warning information into timely, coordinated and evidence-based preparedness and anticipatory actions.

Promote the use of the complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product to inform EAPs, SOPs and preparedness planning, ensuring that existing regional forecasting and multi-hazard modelling capabilities are translated into context-specific operational decisions and actions.

Seasonal and Emerging Climate and Environmental Risk Analysis

Monitor, review and interpret relevant seasonal, sub-seasonal and other emerging climate and environmental information during agreed deployment periods, drawing on existing regional and national forecasting, monitoring and early-warning systems.

Provide technical interpretation and contextualization of ICPAC/GHACOF climate outlooks, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) products and other relevant regional and international climate information to assess their implications for preparedness and anticipatory action in Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti.

Translate climate forecasts, evolving climate signals, forecast probabilities and associated uncertainties into concise, country-specific operational risk assessments, scenario analyses and actionable preparedness recommendations, taking into account hazard exposure, vulnerability and potential impacts.

Provide timely technical analysis of emerging climate drivers and events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other relevant ocean-atmosphere interactions, assessing their potential influence on rainfall patterns, drought, flooding and other climate-related hazards across the three countries.

Prioritize early technical support and targeted risk analysis of the evolving El Niño-related climate context, including the assessment of potential and evolving impacts, associated uncertainties, seasonal variations and implications for existing preparedness plans, early-warning thresholds and anticipatory action triggers in Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti.

Support the translation of emerging seasonal and sub-seasonal climate information into recommendations for reviewing and adjusting existing EAPs, SOPs, contingency plans, Crisis Modifier arrangements and preparedness priorities, where changing risk conditions warrant such adjustments.

Feed relevant seasonal and emerging risk analysis into the complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product, ensuring that evolving climate information and regional forecasting outputs are reflected in operational risk intelligence and decision-support processes.

4.5 Multi-Hazard, Cross-Border and Interoperability Support

Support the interpretation and application of existing regional and national multi-hazard risk assessments and modelling outputs, with particular attention to interactions, compounding and cascading effects between climate and environmental hazards and other relevant risks.

Analyse the spatial and temporal dimensions of transboundary climate and environmental risks across Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti, identifying shared vulnerabilities, interconnected risk patterns and implications for coordinated preparedness and anticipatory action.

Support the identification and contextualization of priority cross-border hazards, indicators, risk thresholds and anticipatory action triggers, promoting consistency and complementarity between national systems and existing regional early-warning and multi-hazard frameworks.

Strengthen interoperability between regional and national climate, environmental and multi-hazard information systems by supporting the harmonization, exchange and operational application of relevant datasets, forecasts, risk assessments and early-warning products.

Contribute technical inputs towards strengthening cross-border information-sharing, coordination and decision-making arrangements, ensuring that regional risk information can effectively inform national and sub-national preparedness and anticipatory action processes.

Support the translation of regional multi-hazard modelling and early-warning outputs into practical cross-border risk intelligence, scenario analyses and decision-support products that inform coordinated preparedness planning and anticipatory action.

Where relevant, coordinate with existing Action Against Hunger and regional early-warning and anticipatory analytics initiatives, including Modeling Early Risk Indicators to Anticipate Malnutrition (MERIAM), to identify opportunities for technical complementarity, leverage relevant evidence and analytical outputs, and avoid duplication of ongoing work.

Ensure that relevant findings and insights from existing regional initiatives, including MERIAM where applicable, inform the complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product without replicating their modelling methodologies, analytical processes or deliverables.

Capacity Strengthening, Monitoring and Learning

Develop practical, simplified and user-friendly technical guidance, tools and training materials to strengthen the capacity of Action Against Hunger (ACF) teams and relevant partners to understand, interpret and operationalize climate and environmental information, including seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts, forecast probabilities, uncertainty, multi-hazard risk information, indicators, thresholds and anticipatory action triggers.

Strengthen the institutional and technical capacity of ACF at regional and country levels to interpret, contextualize and apply existing regional and national climate forecasting and multi-hazard modelling products, particularly those generated by IGAD/ICPAC and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, and translate them into program-level preparedness and anticipatory action decisions.

Facilitate targeted technical training sessions, knowledge-sharing engagements and practical learning exercises for ACF teams and relevant institutional partners, focusing on the application of climate and environmental risk information in programme planning, early warning, preparedness and anticipatory action.

Support the development and application of appropriate indicators and monitoring frameworks to assess the extent to which climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information is integrated into ACF programme planning, preparedness processes, early-warning mechanisms and anticipatory action decision-making.

Contribute to monitoring the operational uptake and application of the complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product, including its relevance, accessibility, usability and contribution to risk-informed programme planning and operational decision-making.

Document good practices, operational experiences, lessons learned and challenges associated with the interpretation and application of climate and environmental information, including the effectiveness of risk thresholds, triggers and trigger-to-action mechanisms.

Facilitate periodic technical reviews and learning engagements to assess the practical application and effectiveness of climate-informed preparedness and anticipatory action approaches, identifying opportunities for refinement and improvement.

Provide recommendations for strengthening ACF's institutional systems, technical capacities, coordination mechanisms and information-sharing arrangements to ensure the sustained integration of climate and environmental risk intelligence into existing programme, preparedness and anticipatory action frameworks.

Key Deliverables:

Through effective collaboration and the application of specialized expertise in climate science, environmental risk analysis, multi-hazard risk assessment, early warning and anticipatory action, the Regional Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Modelling Specialist (Consultant) will provide technical leadership and support to strengthen IMPAACT's multi-hazard risk monitoring, preparedness and anticipatory action systems across Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti. Key deliverables will include an inception report and detailed technical workplan; a comprehensive review of existing regional and national climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information, models, datasets and early-warning systems; development and operationalization of a complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product that builds on and adds value to existing IGAD/ICPAC and national forecasting and multi-hazard modelling capabilities; technical review, refinement and validation of risk indicators, thresholds, forecast-based triggers, EAPs, SOPs, contingency plans and preparedness arrangements; periodic seasonal, sub-seasonal and emerging climate risk analyses and operational preparedness advisories, including assessment of relevant El Niño-related risks and implications; technical inputs to strengthen multi-hazard, cross-border and regional-to-national interoperability and information-sharing arrangements; development of practical, simplified guidance and delivery of targeted capacity-strengthening sessions to enhance ACF's institutional capacity to interpret and operationalize climate and environmental information; periodic technical reviews and monitoring of the application of climate information in programme decision-making; and a final technical learning report documenting achievements, lessons learned, recommendations, sustainability arrangements and handover of agreed technical outputs. All activities will prioritize complementarity with existing regional and national initiatives, including coordination with relevant Action Against Hunger initiatives such as MERIAM, without duplicating its modelling activities or deliverables. A detailed deliverables evaluation matrix, specifying expected outputs, results, means of verification (MoV), acceptance criteria and corresponding timelines, will be shared with the selected consultant during the inception meeting to establish clear performance expectations and a framework for monitoring progress and assessing deliverable completion.Summary of

Key Deliverables and Indicative Timeline

Deliverable / Output and Indicative Timing

1.Inception report and detailed technical workplan, including methodology, stakeholder mapping and implementation arrangements- December 2026

2. Climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk and systems assessment, including review of existing IGAD/ICPAC and national capabilities, identification of gaps and development of the complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product - December 2026 to February 2027

**3.**Technical review and refinement of early-warning indicators, thresholds and triggers, including technical inputs to EAPs, SOPs, contingency plans and preparedness arrangements- December 2026 to March 2027, with continued support as required

4. Seasonal and emerging climate risk analyses and operational preparedness advisories, including El Niño-related risk assessments, forecast interpretation and anticipatory action recommendations. - December 2026 to September 2027

5. Multi-hazard, cross-border and interoperability technical support, including regional-to-national information-sharing, coordination and alignment of early-warning and anticipatory action approaches- December 2026 to September 2027

6. Capacity-strengthening, periodic technical reviews and preparedness support, including simplified guidance, training sessions, trigger refinement, monitoring and operational learning - December 2026 to September 2027

7. Final technical learning report and close-out package, including lessons learned, model product documentation, sustainability recommendations and handover of technical outputs- September to November 2027

Note: The indicative timelines will be further refined during the inception phase in consultation with ACF, IGAD/ICPAC and relevant partners. Deliverables will be implemented progressively, with periodic reviews and technical support throughout the consultancy. All modelling and analytical activities will complement existing regional and national capabilities, without duplicating IGAD/ICPAC or MERIAM-specific modelling activities and deliverables.

6. Indicative Consultancy Phasing and Level of Effort

The assignment will comprise a maximum cumulative level of effort equivalent to 10 consultancy months, delivered intermittently across the indicative deployment phases outlined below. The consultancy will be structured around key technical priorities, seasonal climate risk cycles, programme milestones and emerging preparedness and anticipatory action needs. The deployment periods do not necessarily constitute continuous full-time engagement, but will allow for targeted technical inputs, periodic monitoring, analytical support and follow-up as required.

Phase

Main Focus Areas

Indicative Timing

A. Inception and Systems Assessment

Inception report and workplan; stakeholder and institutional mapping; review of existing regional and national climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information, models and early-warning systems; identification of analytical gaps and development of the complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product framework -December 2026 to February 2027

B. Priority Risk Analysis and Operational Preparedness Support

Priority seasonal and emerging climate risk analysis, including El Niño-related implications; technical review and refinement of indicators, thresholds and triggers; technical inputs to EAPs, SOPs, contingency plans and preparedness arrangements; initial operational risk advisories- December 2026 to March 2027

C. Seasonal Monitoring and Anticipatory Action Support - Continued seasonal and sub-seasonal climate monitoring and interpretation; operational preparedness advisories; trigger validation and refinement; application of the model product; technical support to programme-level preparedness and anticipatory action decisions- March to May 2027

D. Capacity Strengthening and Regional-National Integration

Strengthening ACF's institutional capacity through simplified technical guidance and targeted training; multi-hazard and cross-border risk analysis; regional-to-national interoperability and information-sharing support; periodic technical reviews and support to subsequent preparedness cycles - June to August 2027

E. Consolidation, Learning and Sustainability

Consolidation and documentation of technical outputs; review of model product application and operational uptake; lessons learned; sustainability and institutional ownership recommendations; final technical report and handover of agreed deliverables- September to November 2027

Implementation and deployment arrangements: The detailed allocation of consultancy inputs, deployment schedules, deliverable evaluation matrix, means of verification and acceptance criteria will be finalized during the inception phase in consultation with ACF, IGAD/ICPAC and relevant partners. The phasing and allocation of technical inputs may be adjusted within the approved maximum level of effort to accommodate evolving climate and environmental risks, seasonal forecasting cycles, emerging El Niño-related developments, critical programme milestones and priority operational requirements. Such adjustments will be agreed with ACF in consultation with relevant technical partners, including IGAD/ICPAC, as appropriate.

7. Methodology:

Methodological Approach

The consultancy will adopt a phased, collaborative, evidence-based and operationally oriented approach, focusing on building on existing regional and national climate forecasting, environmental monitoring and multi-hazard modelling capabilities and translating available information into practical preparedness and anticipatory action decisions. The approach will comprise the following key elements:

Desk Review and Systems Assessment: Review existing programme documents, climate and environmental risk assessments, multi-hazard models, forecasts, early-warning products, EAPs, SOPs and preparedness frameworks to identify existing capabilities, gaps and opportunities for complementarity.

Stakeholder Engagement and Coordination: Engage ACF regional and country teams, IGAD/ICPAC, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other relevant stakeholders to understand information needs, institutional capacities and operational priorities.

Climate and Multi-Hazard Risk Analysis: Interpret existing climate forecasts, environmental information and multi-hazard risk assessments to identify priority hazards, emerging risks, seasonal patterns and potential compounding, cascading and cross-border impacts across Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti.

Development of a Complementary Model Product: Develop an integrated Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product that builds on existing regional and national modelling and forecasting capabilities, adding value through risk interpretation, contextualization, impact analysis and operational decision support rather than duplicating existing systems.

Early-Warning and Preparedness Integration: Review and support the refinement of existing indicators, thresholds, triggers, EAPs, SOPs, contingency plans and Crisis Modifier arrangements to strengthen the link between climate information, risk monitoring, institutional decision-making and pre-agreed anticipatory actions.

Seasonal Risk Monitoring and Operational Advisories: Interpret seasonal, sub-seasonal and emerging climate information, including relevant El Niño-related developments, and translate forecast probabilities and uncertainty into practical risk assessments, preparedness recommendations and anticipatory action considerations.

Cross-Border Coordination and Interoperability: Support the alignment and operational application of regional and national early-warning and multi-hazard information, strengthening cross-border information-sharing and coordinated preparedness and anticipatory action approaches while leveraging existing initiatives and avoiding duplication.

Capacity Strengthening and Learning: Develop simplified technical guidance and facilitate targeted training and knowledge-sharing sessions to strengthen ACF's institutional capacity to understand, interpret and operationalize climate and environmental information. Document lessons and recommendations to improve future preparedness and anticipatory action.

Technical Validation and Adaptive Review: Validate key analytical outputs and recommendations with ACF, IGAD/ICPAC and relevant stakeholders, and periodically review their operational relevance and application to ensure continuous improvement.

Guiding principle: The consultancy will prioritize complementarity, practical application and institutional capacity strengthening, ensuring that existing regional and national climate and multi-hazard information is translated into actionable risk intelligence, stronger preparedness and timely anticipatory action without creating parallel modelling or early-warning systems.

8. Required Qualifications and Experience:

The consultant should possess the following qualifications, technical competencies and professional experience:

Education: Advanced university degree (Master's degree or higher) in climatology, meteorology, climate science, environmental science, hydrology, data science, geospatial sciences, disaster risk management or another closely related discipline.

Professional Experience: At least seven (7) years of relevant professional experience in climate services, climate and environmental risk analysis, multi-hazard early warning, disaster risk management, preparedness or anticipatory action.

Climate Risk Analysis and Interpretation: Demonstrated experience interpreting seasonal, sub-seasonal and other climate forecasts and translating climate and environmental information into operational risk assessments, preparedness recommendations and decision-support products.

Forecasting and Climate Science: Strong understanding of climate variability, seasonal forecasting, forecast probabilities, uncertainty, hydrometeorological hazards and relevant climate drivers, including ENSO.

Early Warning and Anticipatory Action: Proven experience reviewing or developing early-warning indicators, risk thresholds, forecast-based triggers, Early Action Protocols (EAPs), Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), contingency plans and anticipatory action frameworks.

Multi-Hazard Risk and Modelling: Demonstrated experience applying existing climate, environmental and multi-hazard modelling outputs, analytical tools and datasets to strengthen risk interpretation, impact assessment and operational decision-making, with an understanding of how to complement existing modelling capabilities rather than duplicate them.

Regional and Country Context: Strong knowledge of the Horn of Africa's climate, environmental and disaster-risk dynamics, particularly Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti. Experience working with IGAD/ICPAC, GHACOF, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services or other regional and national technical institutions is highly desirable.

Data Analysis and Geospatial Skills: Practical experience with GIS, climate and environmental datasets, geospatial analysis and relevant statistical or analytical tools for climate risk monitoring and assessment.

Institutional Capacity Strengthening: Demonstrated experience developing simplified technical guidance, facilitating training and strengthening institutional capacity to interpret and operationalize climate information for programme planning and anticipatory action.

Coordination and Communication: Strong stakeholder engagement, facilitation, analytical and technical writing skills, with the ability to communicate complex climate information and forecast uncertainty in accessible, practical and decision-oriented formats.

Language: Excellent written and spoken English Knowledge of French and relevant regional languages is an added advantage.

Additional desirable qualification: Experience working with humanitarian organizations, international NGOs or regional intergovernmental institutions, particularly in climate-informed humanitarian programming, environmental risk management and DG ECHO-funded programmes.

9. Coordination and Reporting:

Coordination: The consultant will work under the overall coordination of the IMPAACT Programme Consortium Coordinator, in close collaboration with the designated ACF and IGAD/ICPAC technical leads, who will serve as the principal technical focal points for the assignment and provide guidance on technical priorities, coordination arrangements and review and acceptance of deliverables. The consultant will maintain regular coordination with ACF regional and country teams, relevant IGAD/ICPAC technical units, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, government institutions, local partners and other relevant IMPAACT technical personnel to ensure alignment with programme priorities, existing regional and national capabilities, and ongoing initiatives. Particular attention will be given to ensuring complementarity with existing climate forecasting, environmental monitoring and multi-hazard modelling initiatives, avoiding duplication while promoting the operational application of available technical outputs. The consultant will determine the professional approach and organization of the work within the agreed scope, methodology, level of effort, timelines and deliverables, while maintaining regular communication and reporting on progress, emerging risks and any required adjustments. All deliverables will be submitted for technical review and approval in accordance with the agreed consultancy workplan and deliverables evaluation matrix.

Reporting: The consultant will report on progress, technical findings, emerging climate and environmental risks, implementation challenges and recommendations through agreed reporting arrangements and periodic technical coordination meetings. All reports, analytical products, technical guidance materials and other outputs will be submitted to ACF for review and approval, with relevant technical validation and consultation involving IGAD/ICPAC and other stakeholders as appropriate.

Expected reports and continuous engagement:

Bi-weekly progress updates: Submit brief written updates to the line manager every two weeks, highlighting key activities, progress against milestones, emerging issues, and required follow-up actions, supplemented by ad hoc meetings as needed.

Monthly progress reporting: Submit a monthly written report to the line manager summarizing activities undertaken, progress against planned deliverables, key achievements, challenges, and planned next steps. Reports will be complemented by one-to-one virtual or in-person meetings, as appropriate.

End-of-assignment and final reporting: Prepare and submit an end-of-assignment report to the office and line manager, documenting achievements, deliverable completion, key lessons learned, and recommendations in accordance with the agreed evaluation matrix.

10. Duration of the contract:

The consultancy will comprise a maximum cumulative level of effort equivalent to 10 consultancy months, delivered through phased and intermittent technical inputs within the remaining IMPAACT program implementation period (1 December 2026 – 30 April 2028), commencing from the contract signing date. Given the programe's current implementation timeline and emerging climate and preparedness priorities, commencement of the assignment is expected to be prioritized for December 2026. The 10 consultancy months represent the total cumulative engagement period and do not necessarily imply continuous full-time deployment. The allocation of working days and technical inputs across the agreed deployment windows will be determined during the inception phase in consultation with ACF and relevant technical partners, taking into account seasonal climate risk cycles, programme milestones and emerging operational needs. The consultancy duration will be calculated in accordance with the agreed contractual terms, including the applicable treatment of weekends and public holidays, and will remain within the approved maximum level of effort.

11. Consultancy Arrangement:

This assignment will be undertaken as an independent professional consultancy and shall not constitute an employment relationship with Action Against Hunger (ACF). The consultant will be responsible for organizing, managing and delivering the agreed technical inputs and outputs within the approved scope of work, methodology, level of effort, timelines and deliverables. The consultancy will be output-oriented and delivered through phased and intermittent technical inputs, with no fixed daily working hours. However, the consultant will be expected to maintain regular coordination with ACF and relevant technical partners and participate in agreed consultations, technical meetings, workshops, coordination platforms and country or regional missions as necessary to ensure effective delivery of the assignment.

Professional fees will be paid in accordance with the consultancy contract and agreed payment schedule, subject to satisfactory completion, submission and formal acceptance of the agreed deliverables, as assessed against the approved deliverables evaluation matrix and applicable acceptance criteria, and submission of the required invoices. The consultant will be responsible for all applicable taxes, insurance and other statutory obligations arising from the consultancy, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. The assignment will not carry employee benefits, staff entitlements or other employment-related privileges and will conclude in accordance with the duration, conditions and termination provisions stipulated in the consultancy contract.

12. Application and Selection Process

This ToR serves as a call for applications from suitably qualified and experienced individual consultants. Interested applicants are invited to submit a technical and financial proposal demonstrating their relevant qualifications, professional experience, technical expertise and proposed approach to undertaking the assignment. The submitted proposals should address the requirements outlined in this ToR and include the requested supporting documentation. The specified application requirements and evaluation criteria will form the basis for assessing the submitted proposals and selecting the consultant, taking into consideration the applicant's technical competence, relevant regional experience, proposed methodology, understanding of the assignment and financial offer.

Technical Proposal:

A copy of national ID/Passport

A cover letter expressing interest and outlining relevant experience.

Technical proposal (Maximum 5 pages) outlining understanding of the assignment and proposed methodology.

Updated CV demonstrating relevant qualifications and experience.

Examples/references from comparable assignments.

Contact details for at least three professional references.

Confirmation of availability, particularly for the immediate deployment, preferably in November 2026.Disclosure of conflict of interest taking into consideration the specific provisions stated under section

13: Consultancy arrangement.

Financial Proposal:

The financial proposal shall include professional fees and applicable costs (inclusive of all taxes i.e. i.e. VAT and withholding tax)

Indicate a detailed breakdown of the calculated expert days.

The financial proposal should include any reimbursable costs, where applicable, indicated separately.

Quotation shall be in United States Dollars (USD).

Tax treatment shall follow applicable ACF and statutory requirements at contracting stage.

14. Evaluation

The proposal shall be evaluated as follows: -

Technical proposal – 70%

Financial proposal - 30%

15. Tender Schedule

Description

Dates

Advert - 09/11/2026

Closing - 26/11/2026

Last Date for Clarification - 20/11/2026

Tender Opening - 27/11/2026

Evaluation - 27/11/2026

Interviews - 3rd & 4th /12/2026

Signing of Contract - 10/12/2026

Submission Requirements

Proposals shall be sent to email address: hearotenders@actionagainsthunger.org no later than: 17:00Hrs EAT on 26th November 2026. Any inquiries for clarification shall be sent to: hqprocurement@actionagainsthunger.org by: 20th November 2026. Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted for interview. The consultant will be selected by an evaluation committee, which will also be responsible for the technical oversight of the procurement process.

Consultant Details

Name of Consultant: ………………………………………………

Location: …………………………………

Street Road: …………………………………

Contact person: ……………………………………………………

Email address: ………………………………

Telephone number: ………………………………

Bank detail

Bank name: …………………………………………………

Branch: ……………………………………

Currency: ……………………

Account number: ……………………………………

Swift Code: …………………………

Name: ………………………………………………………

Signature: ………………………… Date: …………………………

Appendix i:

GOOD BUSINESS REGULATIONS

These Good Business Regulations are the grounds for a professional working relationship between Action Against Hunger and the suppliers.

They are general regulations valid unless others particular conditions are mentioned in the contract. In case of conflicting terms within documents, the conditions of the contract or tender dossier will prevail on these Good Business Regulations.

Principles of the procurement procedures

Action Against Hunger has transparent procedures to award markets. Essential principles are

Transparency in the procurement process

Proportionality between the procedures followed for awarding contracts and the value of the markets

Equal treatment of potential suppliers

Usual criteria to select a supplier are:

Authorisation to perform the market

Financial and economic capacities

Technical expertise

Professional capacities

Usual criteria to award markets are:

Automatic award (the cheapest offer complying with all requirements)

Best value for money (price/quality ratio)

Misbehavior, ineligibility and exclusion

Action Against Hunger considers the following misbehavior as a valid ground for a systematic exclusion of an awarding market procedure and for the termination of all working relationship and contracts:

Fraud defined as any intentional act or omission relating to:

The use or presentation of false, incorrect or incomplete statements or documents, which has as its effect the misappropriation or wrongful retention of Action Against Hunger or institutional donors funds

Non-disclosure of information, with the same effect

The misapplication of such funds for purposes other than those for which they were originally granted

Active corruption: to deliberately promise or give an advantage to an official for him/her to act or refrain from acting in accordance with his duty in a way which damages or is likely to damage Action Against Hunger or institutional donors financial interests

Collusion: the co-ordination of firms competitive behaviour, with the likely result that prices rise, output is restricted and the profits of the colluding companies are higher than they would otherwise be. Collusive behaviour does not always rely on the existence of explicit agreements between firms, but can also be tacit.

Coercive practice: harming or threatening to harm, directly or indirectly, persons, or their property to influence their participation in a procurement process, or affect the execution of a contract.

Bribery: to offer Action Against Hunger employees monetary or in kind gifts in order to gain additional markets or to continue a contract

Involvement in a criminal organization or any other illegal activity established by a judgement, by the US Government, the European Union, the United Nations or any other donor funding Action Against Hunger.

Immoral Human Resources practices: exploitation of child labour and the non-respect of basic social rights and working conditions of employees or subcontractors

Action Against Hunger will exclude from a procurement procedure any candidate or tenderer falling into one of the following cases:

To be bankrupt or to be wound up, to have affairs administered by the courts, to have enter into an arrangement with creditors, to have suspended business activities, to be the subject of proceedings concerning those matters, or are in any analogous situation arising from a similar procedure provided for in national legislation or regulations

To have been convicted of an offence concerning professional conduct by a judgement that has the force of res judicata

To have been guilty of grave professional misconduct proven by any means that Action Against Hunger can justify

To have not fulfilled obligations relating to the payment of social security contributions or the payment of taxes in accordance with the legal provisions of the country in which they are established or with those of the country where Action Against Hunger mission is operating or those of the country where the contract is to be performed

They have been the subject of a judgement that has the force of res judicata for fraud, corruption, involvement in a criminal organisation or any other illegal activity detrimental to the Communities' financial interests

To have been declared to be in serious breach of contract for failure to comply with their contractual obligations in another previous procurement procedure

Action Against Hunger will not award contracts to candidates or tenderers who, during the procurement procedure:

Are subject to a conflict of interest

Are guilty of misrepresentation in supplying the information required Action Against Hunger as a condition of participation in the contract procedure or fail to supply this information

Administrative and financial sanctions

In the event a supplier, candidate or tenderer is engaged in corrupt, fraudulent, collusive or coercive practices Action Against Hunger will impose:

Administrative sanctions:

Administrative sanctions are the official notification of the misconduct to the relevant civil or commercial authorities and the immediate termination of all existing working relationships.

Financial sanctions:

Action Against Hunger will request the reimbursement of the cost linked directly and directly to the conduct of a new tendering process or market award. If any, the tender or performance guarantee will be kept by Action Against Hunger.

Information of and access for the Donors

Action Against Hunger will inform immediately the Institutional Donors and will provide all the relevant information in the event a supplier, candidate or tenderer is engaged in corrupt, fraudulent, collusive or coercive practices.

Furthermore, the contractors agree to guarantee a right of access to their financial and accounting documents to the representatives of Action Against Hunger’s institutional donors for the purposes of checks and audits.

Documents to be a supplier

Hereafter is the minimal documentation a contractor working with Action Against Hunger will have to provide:

Personnel national ID/Passport document of the supplier/company representative/owner

Status and registration of the company

Mission order or power of attorney authorising the representative to contact

Important note: Additional documentation may be required for a particular market.

In addition the contractor must have the capacity to issue invoices, receipts and waybills (or delivery notes), to provide a tax clearance certificate and certify documents with an official stamp.

Anti-Corruption Policy

If you believe that the action of anyone (or a group of people) working or volunteering for Action Against Hunger programs is responsible for violating the above rules, you should file a report through the Whistle-blower Email Hotline.

In order to enable the treatment, reports should give as precise information as possible; your name and contact are optional but encouraged.All reports are treated confidentially to the extent permissible by law. Action Against Hunger will use all reasonable efforts to preserve the confidentiality of the whistle-blower and to protect whistle-blowers against any possible retaliation.

Reports are to be sent as follows: abusereport@et.missions-acf.org,

Anti-Bribery, Corruption, Abuse of Power and PSEA Clause

Any Supplier, who suspects Action Against Hunger employee of dishonest conduct, should raise their concerns with the management of the regional office on :

acf-usaconfidential@actionagainsthunger.org

(monitored by ACF US HQ)

All reports at all levels will be treated with utmost confidentially to the extent permissible by Law.

Any suspected violations can be submitted anonymously

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